Topic: Politics
The orchestrated anti-Japanese protests throughout China are dangerously close to showing once again the power of the law of unintended consequences. My first thought upon the beginning of these protests/riots was that it's excellent training for exactly what the Chinese government does not want. That being the organizing of people in opposition to them. Well, you put citizens in the streets to protest Japan and you are teaching them how to protest and how effective it can be. The history of China and Japan has not been a gentle one and the hatred is and always has been right there under the surface. By attempting to harness those hatreds toward a few foreign policy goals (keeping the Japanese off of the Security Council, winning control of the waters off of Okinawa for oil and gas drilling) the Chinese government begins to wake the beast that they cannot control. So now the Chinese are trying to reign this firestorm in. Riots in China Will they be able to reign this force of nature in? I think the government there has been too clever by half and they have in fact lit a fuse that will cause a terrible explosion and there is no way to know at this time which way the blast will turn. Clearly the Chinese government has been willing to engage in a foreign policy of saber rattling and confrontation. Clearly the government knows it is riding a tiger at home and they are clenched so tight that they know if they fall off they will be consumed. Like countless dictatorial nations the allure of nationalism to unite a population that is loosing faith in the nation state as it exists can work for a while. Clearly the Chinese 'street' is united against Japan in a way that startles and frightens the authorities. They must recognize that they face the danger of being consumed by their own creation.
Unlike the Soviet Union at the end of it's life, the Chinese leadership has not completely lost it's revolutionary zeal. In the USSR the wild eyed zealots of Bolshevik Communism faded with the death of Lenin in the 1920's and died under the heel of Stalin's pogroms in the 40's and 50's. In China the peasant rebellion of Mao's lived beyond Mao's death in the 1970's and while the tired old men of Russia knew when to give it up I don't think the Chinese leadership will let their power and control slip away without a fight. Tiannemen Square proved that and the dead in the streets to quell the future riots can only be imagined. The very real danger to the rest of the world in all of this is clear to see. Nationalism in the guise of focusing energy and rhetoric against Taiwan can and easily will be directed in a war of 'reunification' - While much of the rest of the world seems to believe their own pie in the sky thoughts that China wouldn't risk their economic relations with the rest of the world in a war against Taiwan it is clear from Chinese history that they certainly would do that exact thing if it meant a chance to retain power and control of a splintering China. China has gone it's own way in history many times and will do so again regardless of the perceived costs and disruptions to trade. And while the nations of the world turn a blind eye to it they make this war filled future all the more probable. Much like Neville Chamberlain was unable to recognize the growing danger of Hitler, the leaders of Europe with their desire to reopen military sales to China are equally blind and deserving of contempt. The future is almost here.
Posted by gilbert davis
at 11:08 PM EDT