Topic: Politics
I'm watching Iran puffing itself up as it continues to try to bluff it's way to it's goal of becoming armed with nuclear weapons. Many things going on at once and it's hard sometimes to really gauge what the reasoning is behind what they are doing. It's a deadly game of chess and of poker with a number of players who are all capable of starting a war. Israel is sitting there watching Iran march toward arming itself with nuclear weapons and they can't allow that. Or is that what they are saying to force the United States to take action. How long can Israel afford to wait, hoping that the UN and or the United States will take action to keep it from happening. What will be the final trigger that causes Israel to pull the trigger? Will the capture of 15 British soldiers convince them that Iran will not turn back? You can look at it in a number of ways, that Iran is trying to draw attention away from the proceedings at the UN which are turning the screws on them. That the capture of the British soldiers was done not by the government but by the Revolutionary Guard types who are moving on their own to signal their own government that they will allow no backing down and a power struggle is seriously under way right now. Clearly Iran has a history of taking hostages as a way to show the weakness of their enemies and of consolidating internal power. They have gambled before that countries such as Great Britain or the United States are unwilling to militarily attack them and risk a wider war. That only works as long as those greater powers believe that the war is ultimately against their interests.
The United States and Great Britain have shown an ability to do a great deal of damage to a country before even putting boots on the ground. If they determine that there is no need or desire to put boots on the ground in order to decapitate the Iranian threat then any protection the Iranians think they have is gone. There are four aircraft carriers in the area at this moment, more than enough to destroy every thing they would want to destroy in short order. And George Bush certainly has shown a desire to pick a fight. Perhaps as I think about it, the capture of the British soldiers is calculated to determine the willingness of the UN and the United States to use that military force. They are probably closely watching any actions the four carriers will make. If they determine that there is no chance that they can provoke a military response then they will feel that they can continue to seek to fashion their nukes. Which will cause Israel to make plans to attack themselves and the Iranians will think that they can absorb any attack by Israel and come out stronger. Many players, many possible actions and many possible outcomes.
